European Oilseed Crushings Set to Decline Sharply in Jan/June 2025

Insufficient domestic supplies of rapeseed and sunflowerseed are likely to curb EU oilseed crushings in 2024/25....Combined setback of 2.5 Mn T in July/June 2024/25 in rapeseed and sunflowerseed processing likely to sharply reduce EU veg. oils supplies....

The necessary rationing will only be achieved via comparatively high prices. We therefore consider the setback in EU rapeseed prices on the Matif by 6% in the two weeks to Nov 28 to be only temporary. The same argument applies to rapeseed oil ...

High Prices are Having Multiple Effects on Vegetable Oil Market

The world market has to accomplish the difficult job of rationing demand sufficiently. World production of the eight major vegetable oils is currently forecast to increase by only 2.2 Mn T this season, less than half the growth registered in 2023/24. Supplies are decimated further by the year-on-year decline of carry-in stocks ...

This supply squeeze may curb the increase of world consumption to only around 2.7 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25, versus 8.6 Mn T a year ago. It will be inevitable to slow down the growth of vegetable oil consumption significantly in the USA, China, India and Indonesia. In all these countries production of biodiesel will suffer from the deteriorated price competitiveness versus fossil fuel....Latest OIL WORLD supply & demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

World Crushings to Be Boosted by 22 Mn T in Sept/Aug 2024/25

 Soybean crushings will be boosted by approximately 22 Mn T from a year earlier in Sept/Aug 2024/25, according to our current analysis. Global dependence on soybeans as well as on soya oil and meal is rising sharply. More soya oil is required to at least partly offset insufficient supplies of sun oil, rape seed oil and palm oil. Crushings of rapeseed and sunseed are forecast to decline by a combined 8 Mn T this season.

In Sept 2024, world soybean crushings increased by 3.0 Mn T or 11% from a year earlier to 29.3 Mn T...

Olive Oil Prices Under Pressure

Prices have fallen to a 2-year low this week due to a strongly recovering olive oil production and exports, primarily in Spain, Türkiye and Tunisia, the three top producers....

World production of olive oil is turning out higher than expected in 2024/25. We have raised our estimate by 0.3 Mn T to a 3-year high of 3.52 Mn T, implying a recovery of 0.8 Mn T from last season’s multi-year low...

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Exports Plummeting in 2024

Soybean Crushings Affected by Low Soya Meal Export Sales

Indian soybean processors are struggling with declining soya meal prices on the world market and large imports of soya oil from Argentina....We currently consider it likely that Indian soybean crushings will decline by 0.5-0.6 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25 despite this year's large crop. This is based on the assumption that exports of soya meal will be limited to...

Peruvian Production Seen Rising in Nov/Jan 2024/25

Peruvian production of fish oil & meal is likely to exceed initial estimates in Nov/Jan 2024/25, following the largest catch quota for the second fishing season in four years. This favourable production outlook as well as record Chinese stocks in early October are likely to keep fish meal prices under pressure in the nearby....